In its 2019 Energy Outlook BP anticipated that renewable energy will surpass coal as the world’s major producer of electricity. Under the evolving transition (ET) scenario the outlook assumes that 85 percent of the new growth in energy supply will come from natural gas and renewable energy, even as renewables start surpassing natural gas and coal power.
The outlook explores different scenarios for the world’s energy markets and use of fuel materials. This outlook largely focusses on the evolving transition scenario, which anticipates that government policies, technologies and societal preferences will continual to evolve as they have been doing.
“The Outlook again brings into sharp focus just how fast the world’s energy systems are changing, and how the dual challenge of more energy with fewer emissions is framing the future. Meeting this challenge will undoubtedly require many forms of energy to play a role,” said Bob Dudley, group chief executive. “Predicting how this energy transition will evolve is a vast, complex challenge. In BP, we know the outcome that’s needed, but we don’t know the exact path the transition will take. Our strategy offers us the flexibility and agility we need to meet this uncertainty head on.”
Under the ET scenario BP anticipated that renewables will grow quicker than any energy source in history, at 7.6 percent per year, accounting for two thirds of the new energy installed by 2040. Wind power will increase by a factor of 5 and solar power will increase by a of 10. The growth will come thanks to moving down learning curves and continuing price falls, according to the company.
The company also anticipated that natural gas use will grow by 1.7 percent a year between now and 2040, a total of 50 percent more than now. It will be the only other energy primary energy source that increases over the duration of the outlook.
“The world of energy is changing,” said Spencer Dale, group chief economist. “Renewables and natural gas together account for the great majority of the growth in primary energy. In our evolving transition scenario, 85% of new energy is lower carbon.”
In European Union (EU) countries renewables will reach their highest percentages of power generation, the report anticipated. It estimated that more than 50 percent of the EU’s energy will come from renewables posing some challenges for managing intermittency issues. The overall demand in growth of renewables will come from the developing world led by China, India and Asia, which the report said would account for almost half of the growth.Tweet