The PV Market Alliance (PVMA) anticipated that when all is said and done the world will have installed 75 gigawatts of photovoltaics (PV) in 2016 reaching 300 GWs of solar installed internationally. That’s a jump of 50 percent over the 50 gigawatts of solar installed in 2015. The alliance also found that 2017 could see as much new solar installed in 2017 but could slump to as few as 65 new gigawatts of solar.
The alliance said: “2017 could become a challenging year with at least 65 GW installed in a pessimistic scenario (a market drop of 13 percent). Reasonably, a similar level of installations as in 2016 could be reached if established markets maintain a reasonable level of development.” However, a declining or stable market is likely to maintain pressure on module prices to keep them low as production capacities come online in 2017. That will increase the gap between supply and demand, according to PVMA.
Growth in 2016 was led by China, which installed an astounding 34 gigawatts of solar panels in 2016. That’s an increase of 126 percent in year over year growth for the country and represents roughly 45 percent of the total global deployment last year, according to PVMA. “PVMA estimates that China will have exceeded the 100 GW mark by the end of 2017, if not even earlier.”
However, even within those numbers, it’s clear to see that the market in China has slowed. That’s because it had a tariff that ended in the first half of the year the developers scrambled to meet. The reduction in China’s installations in 2017 alone could slow the world solar market.
The consortium also anticipated that other leading markets could slow down in 2017. “The US market experienced major growth with installations possibly reaching 13 GW, however PVMA anticipates significant uncertainties for the coming years,” it stated.
Japan, which has been among world leaders in new solar installations recently, saw its installations in 2016 fall to 8.6 GWs from 10.8 GWs in 2015. The organization anticipated that Japan could see further installation declines. While solar installations in Europe were led by the United Kingdom, Germany, Turkey and France the continent installed roughly 6.5 GWs of solar in 2016, PVMA said. “Relatively low deployment has pushed Europe’s global PV market share to below 10 percent,” it stated.
To offset those losses PVMA anticipated increased growth coming from India and emerging markets. “India experienced significant growth with 5 GW installed in 2016, up from 2 GW in 2015 and is expected to add up to 8 to 9 GW in 2017,” the organization said.
The alliance also found that several emerging markets began contributing more significantly to global growth, installing at least 7 GWs of solar. “Other American and Asian countries contributed significantly while the Middle-East and Africa start to deliver,” PVMA said.
PVMA consists of Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA), Becquerel Institute, Creara (formerly Eclareon Spain) and RTS Corporation, Tokyo, Japan.Tweet